The Manitoba Real Estate Association reported that the province experienced the third-best MLS® home sales numbers. The number of homes sold through MLS® Systems reached 1,522 units in April 2024, up 23.7% from April 2023.
According to a recent Edge Realty report, this is part of a larger trend, as reported in its quarterly market overview for Q1 2024 for Manitoba.
Sales
Sales in the Manitoba real estate market experienced a strong increase. Quarter-over-quarter, sales rose by 5.8%, while the year-over-year numbers showed an even more notable increase of 23.2%. The Manitoba Real Estate Association numbers suggest this trend is continuing.
Listings
The number of new listings in Q1 showed a slight decrease of 1.7% from the previous quarter. However, when viewing the year-over-year data, there was a modest increase of 0.8% in new listings.
Active listings, on the other hand, have decreased both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, by 4.7% and 3.4%, respectively, for a potentially tightening market.
Prices
Property prices in Manitoba increased, reflecting the demand trends seen in sales and active listings. Quarter-over-quarter, prices rose by 1.8%, while the year-over-year increase stood at 5.6%.
Under Construction
The number of properties under construction decreased significantly. There is a 4.8% drop from the previous quarter and a notable 10.1% decline year-over-year. This reduction in new construction could further tighten the supply side of the market.
Months of Inventory
The months of inventory decreased from 3.0 months in Q4 2023 to 2.7 months in Q1 2024. This indicates the number of months it would take to sell all current listings at the current sales pace. As this number decreases, it indicates less supply to meet demands.
Sales-to-New Listings Ratio
The sales-to-new listings ratio increased from 62.2% in Q4 2023 to 71.7% in Q1 2024. This indicates a strong demand and tight supply conditions in the market. A ratio above 60% typically indicates a seller’s market, where sellers have more negotiating power due to the high demand for properties.
Other Economic Indicators
Population
Manitoba’s population grew, increasing by 0.6% quarter-over-quarter and 2.9% year-over-year, adding to housing demand.
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate in Manitoba rose from 4.2% in Q4 2023 to 5.0% in Q1 2024. Despite this increase, the unemployment rate remained relatively low, lower than the long-term average of 6.28%.
Mortgage Arrears
Mortgage arrears increased slightly from 0.28% in Q4 2023 to 0.30% in Q1 2024. Although the rise was minimal, it does indicate financial stress among some homeowners, and is part of a larger trend across Canada, making this metric a concern.
The Manitoba real estate market in Q1 2024 has exhibited strong sales growth, rising prices, and decreasing inventory levels. However, a slight increase in unemployment and mortgage arrears should be noted.