Manitoba’s markets experienced varying trends. The Manitoba real estate market in Q3 2024 showed strong residential sales growth, with an 11.5% year-over-year increase despite a decline in active listings. The industrial sector experienced rising availability and negative net absorption, while the office market had mixed performance, featuring a recovery in downtown vacancies but increased suburban office vacancies.
Residential Summary for Q3 2024
Sales
Residential sales in Manitoba increased by 3.3% from Q2 2024, according to an Edge Realty Analytics report, reflecting sustained demand in the province’s housing market. Year-over-year, the sales volume rose by 11.5%, showing a strong growth trend.
Listings
New listings decreased by 1.2% from Q2, and active listings fell by 3.1% quarter-over-quarter. Compared to the previous year, new listings saw a modest increase of 1.7%, but active listings declined by 7.1%, as demand outpaced supply.
Prices
Home prices in Manitoba rose by 2.8% from Q2, with a 5.9% increase year-over-year. As of October 2024, the average home price stood at $372,212, according to the CREA.
Months of Inventory
The months of inventory decreased to 2.4 months in Q3, down from 2.6 months in Q2, indicating a more seller-friendly market as inventory is absorbed quickly relative to the current demand.
Sales-to-New Listings Ratio
The sales-to-new listings ratio increased from 67.7% in Q2 to 70.6% in Q3, highlighting a competitive market where new supply is limited compared to the current demand.
Construction Activity
Construction activity in Manitoba rose by 3.1% from the previous quarter, though year-over-year levels were down 12.0%, likely due to rising construction costs. The majority of new development remains concentrated in urban areas, particularly Winnipeg.
Economic Indicators
Population Growth
Manitoba’s population grew by 0.6% from Q2 and 2.7% year-over-year, supporting housing demand in both the residential and rental markets as population growth continues.
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate in Manitoba rose from 5.1% in Q2 to 5.7% in Q3. Despite the increase, Manitoba’s unemployment rate remains lower than Canada’s overall rate of 6.5% in October.
Mortgage Arrears
Mortgage arrears rose slightly in Q3 to 0.30%, up from 0.29% in Q2.
Rental Market for November 2024
The average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in Winnipeg decreased by 2.8% month-over-month in November, according to Rentals.ca, bringing the rate to $1,382. Year-over-year, however, one-bedroom rents rose by 7.8%.
A similar pattern was seen for two-bedroom apartments, further highlighting an ongoing demand for rental units despite recent declines. The average rent for two-bedroom apartments saw a month-over-month decrease of 1.3%, reaching $1,770. Year-over-year, rents for two-bedroom units increased by 4.6%.
Industrial Summary for Q3 2024
The Winnipeg industrial market saw a noticeable increase in availability during Q3 2024, according to the CBRE, with negative net absorption totalling 142,000 square feet. This shift pushed the availability rate up to 3.1%, reflecting a 30 basis point (bps) increase from the previous quarter. However, only 37,500 square feet were added to the market.
The construction pipeline continues to lag behind previous years, constrained by elevated construction costs; currently, only 254,000 square feet of space is under development. Additionally, average net rental rates dipped slightly, dropping by $0.05 per square foot to reach $10.96 per square foot.
Office Summary for Q3 2024
The Winnipeg office market remained relatively stable in Q3 2024, with the overall vacancy rate holding steady at 16.3%.
The downtown segment showed signs of improvement, with 23,000 square feet of positive net absorption reducing the downtown vacancy rate to 18.4%. Within the downtown Class A market, there was a significant increase in average net asking rental rates, which rose by $0.53 per square foot to $19.50 per square foot quarter-over-quarter. The downtown Class C market also showed progress, with its vacancy rate decreasing by 260 basis points to 16.0%.
On the other hand, the suburban office market experienced some setbacks, with negative net absorption of around 6,000 square feet leading to an increased vacancy rate of 10.8%, up by 50 basis points from the previous quarter. However, suburban office spaces saw rental rates climb by $0.25 per square foot, resulting in an average net rental rate of $17.82 per square foot.