Both Edmonton and Calgary experienced a rise in seasonally adjusted home sales in August. However, the momentum appears to be shifting between the two cities. Edmonton is seeing continued strength, while Calgary’s market is showing signs of cooling off.
A September Edge Realty report suggests that Calgary’s market could cool in the short term as inventory continues to rise although long-term prospects remain strong, and further suggests that Edmonton shows more potential for the immediate future, with stronger price growth, lower inventory, and continued demand.
Year-Over-Year Sales: Edmonton Leads in Growth
Year-over-year (y/y) trends highlight the contrast in Calgary’s and Edmonton’s housing market paths. Calgary’s home sales were down 20% in August compared to the same month in 2023, a significant drop, though it’s important to note that last year was a record-breaking period for the city. In contrast, Edmonton’s sales surged by 16% over the same time frame, showing an upward trajectory.
One area of particular note in Calgary is the sharp decline in condo sales, which fell by 31% y/y. This slowdown in the condo segment is contributing to Calgary’s overall pullback.
Inventory Rises in Calgary, Remains Stable in Edmonton
A key divergence between the two markets is in active listings. Calgary’s inventory is on a clear upward trend, while Edmonton’s inventory remains at near-decade lows. The year-over-year difference in listings is noteworthy: Calgary has seen a 37% increase in overall listings, with condo listings rising more significantly by 54%. In contrast, Edmonton’s listings have declined by 15%.
Surges in New Listings
Both cities saw an increase in new listings. In Calgary, seasonally adjusted new listings jumped nearly 8% month-over-month (m/m) in August, with a 13% increase compared to August 2023. This rise in inventory has caused a noticeable shift in Calgary’s sales-to-new-listings ratio, which has dropped to 62%. While still a healthy level, this is a marked decline from the near 80% ratio the city enjoyed from 2023 through early 2024. Edmonton, on the other hand, remains in a stronger position with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 74% in August.
Price Appreciation: Edmonton Takes the Lead
Both Edmonton and Calgary have seen home prices rise in 2024. However, for the first time since 2014, Edmonton is leading Calgary in annual price appreciation. The Edge Realty September Report predicts ample room for further price growth in Edmonton, given the market’s momentum and inventory constraints. Calgary, while still seeing price increases, may face a more moderate trajectory in the coming months as its supply expands.
Construction Activity on the Rise in Both Cities
Construction activity is also heating up in both cities, with the number of dwellings under construction rising 2.5% in Calgary and 2.6% in Edmonton in August. This increase is primarily driven by a surge in condo construction.
Housing Starts: Calgary Leads
In Calgary, housing starts were up an impressive 52% y/y in July, while Edmonton saw a more modest increase of 9%. Calgary’s construction sector is significantly more active, which is expected to build up inventory through the remainder of 2024 and into 2025.