Alberta’s two largest cities continue to stand out as population growth centres in Canada, supported by strong migration inflows and economic fundamentals. Despite some similarities, their housing markets are beginning to diverge in meaningful ways. While both cities are experiencing some cooling in sales and a surge in construction activity, Calgary appears more exposed to short-term imbalances, particularly in prices and future rental supply, according to a September Edge Realty Analytics report.
Shared Strengths
Both Calgary and Edmonton benefit from Alberta’s unmatched demographic and economic appeal. The province continues to lead the nation in population growth by a wide margin, driven primarily by interprovincial migration. Thousands of Canadians are relocating from more expensive regions, particularly Ontario and British Columbia, drawn by the combination of affordability, job opportunities, and an overall higher quality of life.
Alberta’s economic fundamentals strengthen this migration trend. With the lowest corporate tax rate in Canada, a strong provincial balance sheet, and one of the youngest, most educated workforces in the country, Alberta continues to attract high-value professionals and entrepreneurs. This “brain gain” dynamic supports both labour market strength and sustained housing demand across the province’s major cities.
Affordability remains a crucial factor in this equation. Compared to markets such as Toronto or Vancouver, both Calgary and Edmonton offer accessible homeownership opportunities, which have been key to sustaining population inflows even amid higher interest rates.
While both cities are facing cyclical slowdowns in sales and a potential near-term overhang of supply, long-term outlooks remain bullish according to the report. Alberta’s combination of affordability, fiscal strength, and population growth positions both metros for resilience once current imbalances are absorbed.
Housing Market Balance and Sales Performance
Both markets experienced a degree of softening in August 2025, but the scale and nature of this slowdown differ. Calgary’s home sales for the month were effectively unchanged month-over-month, while Edmonton’s sales continued trending lower. On a year-over-year basis, Calgary recorded a 7.3% decline, indicating that activity has weakened more noticeably there.
Listing activity also tells a divergent story. Calgary’s new listings were down slightly compared to last year, while Edmonton saw a 9% increase. This suggests that Edmonton’s market is receiving more new inventory, though not at the same rate as Calgary’s growth in active listings, up 48% versus 24% in Edmonton. The larger rise in Calgary’s active inventory points to more visible supply accumulation.
Despite these differences, both markets have transitioned into softer territory relative to last year. Calgary’s sales-to-new listings ratio sits in the high 50s, while Edmonton’s remains in the mid-60s. Although both readings indicate trends towards a more balanced market compared to the previous couple of years, Edmonton’s tighter ratio signals comparatively stronger absorption and less downward price pressure for now.
Diverging Price Trends
Prices are where Calgary and Edmonton’s market paths are separating more notably. Calgary is facing accelerating price declines. Overall benchmark prices are down 4% year-over-year, with condominium prices down a steeper 6%. The pace of decline has picked up in recent months, reflecting the combined impact of rising active listings and softening sales momentum.
Edmonton, on the other hand, is holding up better in annual comparisons. Prices remain higher than a year ago, although they have slipped for five consecutive months according to the MLS Home Price Index. The direction is negative, but the magnitude of Edmonton’s price adjustments has been far less severe than Calgary’s.
This divergence is of interest, given that both markets appear similarly “balanced” by other metrics. The key difference lies in momentum and sentiment; Calgary’s price corrections have accelerated as inventory pressure mounts, while Edmonton’s slower listing growth and tighter market balance have delayed comparable declines.
Construction Activity and Future Rental Supply
Both cities are experiencing a construction boom, particularly in purpose-built rentals, but the underlying dynamics differ sharply when it comes to homeowner supply and potential overhang risk.
Total dwellings under construction rose 11.6% year-over-year in Calgary, compared with a much stronger 28.9% increase in Edmonton. Both cities saw a nearly identical 41% surge in purpose-built rentals under construction, reflecting the national shift toward rental development amid high borrowing costs. However, Edmonton also reported a 14.7% increase in single-family construction, outpacing Calgary’s more modest 0.9% rise, indicating more robust new-home activity targeted at owner-occupiers.
When rental units are excluded, Calgary’s situation appears more precarious. The report identifies Calgary as being in a “danger zone” for potential oversupply once current projects are completed, given the scale of rental development relative to expected population gains. Over the next two years, Calgary’s total rental stock could expand by approximately 17%, compared to about 9% in Edmonton.
With population growth projected at no more than 4% over the same period, the report advises that Calgary could face a temporary imbalance, potentially pushing vacancy rates across the province back toward levels not seen since the early 1990s. Edmonton, while also expanding its rental base, appears better positioned to absorb new supply due to a more moderate pipeline and less rapid inventory buildup.